SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. NEW REGION 8644 (S24E69) PRODUCED AN M1 AT 23/1601Z. THE BIG BEAR OBSERVATORY REPORTED A FLARE BRIGHT KNOT OF MATERIAL AT THE SOUTHEAST LIMB AT THE TIME OF THE X-RAY BURST. THERE MAY BE A REGION BEHIND 8644 THAT WAS THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF THE X-RAY BURST. THIS WOULD BE NEAR THE LOCATION OF THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8611 THAT PRODUCED 5 M-CLASS EVENTS LAST ROTATION. REGION 8636 (N21W02) GREW SLOWLY DURING THE PERIOD AND SIMPLIFIED. THE WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION VISIBLE IN THIS REGION ON 22 JUL FADED. REGION 8636 PRODUCED A VERY LONG DURATION M1/2F THAT BEGAN AT 23/1832Z AND REACHED MAXIMUM AT 23/2005Z. SEVERAL MID TO HIGH LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES WERE PRODUCED BY THIS REGION. REGION 8639 (N38W60) GREW AT A MODERATE PACE AND EXHIBITED A STRAIGHT BIPOLAR, BUT REVERSE POLARITY, CONFIGURATION.

AT A MINIMUM, SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8636, 8639, AND 8644 (OR THE REGION BEHIND IT) ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8636 COULD PRODUCE AN X-CLASS EVENT DURING THE PERIOD.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED WITH BRIEF QUIET PERIODS. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY BEGAN TO DECREASE DURING THE PERIOD BUT REMAINED ABOVE NORMAL.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 24-25 JUL. SHOULD REGION 8636 PRODUCE A LARGE FLARE, IT WOULD LIKELY HAVE THE CHARACTERISTICS (LARGE AREA, LONG DURATION, AND CME CREATION) TO PRODUCE A SOLAR PROTON EVENT AT THE EARTH.

  Observed       23 JUL 194
  Predicted   24 JUL-26 JUL  175/178/180
  90 Day Mean        23 JUL 155

OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JUL  023/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JUL  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JUL-26 JUL  012/012-012/012-008/008