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Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 March 2000

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Mar 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 11 MAR 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8906 (S16E31) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 11/0927Z. TIGHT MAGNETIC GRADIENTS AND A POSSIBLE DELTA CONFIGURATION EXIST IN THIS REGION WHICH ALSO PRODUCED A C4/SF AT 10/2318Z AND A C6 FLARE AT 11/0415Z. NEW REGIONS 8909 (S18W20) AND 8910 (S29E76) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS ARE LIKELY FROM REGION 8906.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 12 MAR to 14 MAR
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 MAR 203
  Predicted   12 MAR-14 MAR  200/195/195
  90 Day Mean        11 MAR 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAR  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAR  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAR-14 MAR  010/012-007/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 MAR to 14 MAR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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