Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 June 2000

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 07 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9026 (N20W03) PRODUCED AN X1/3B EVENT AT 07/1553Z. THIS EVENT HAD AN ASSOCIATED 200 SFU TENFLARE, A TYPE II SWEEP WITH A SPEED OF 826 KM/S, AND A WEAK TYPE IV SWEEP. LASCO/EIT IMAGERY ALSO OBSERVED A FAINT HALO CME WITH THIS EVENT. EARLIER, REGION 9031 (S31W77) PRODUCED AN M2/1B EVENT AT 07/0444Z. REGION 9026 RETAINED ITS BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION WITH 27 SPOTS, BUT HAS DECREASED SOME IN OVERALL AREA. THE REGION AREA DECREASED FROM APPROXIMATELY 800 MILLIONTHS YESTERDAY TO 590 MILLIONTHS TODAY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 9026 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE M-CLASS AND ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENTS.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT CROSSED THE 10 PFU EVENT THRESHOLD AT 07/1335Z AND HAS NOT YET PEAKED (07/2100Z FLUX AT 25 PFU).

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF AN EARTH-DIRECTED FULL HALO CME FROM THE X2/3B EVENT ON 06 JUNE, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD TO ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. THE THIRD DAY MAY FIRST SEE A SHORT DECLINE IN ACTIVITY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO STORMING LEVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS FROM THE X1/3B EVENT TODAY.

III. Event Probabilities 08 JUN to 10 JUN

Class M	70%	70%	70%
Class X	20%	15%	15%
Proton	15%	15%	10%
PCAF	RED

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       07 JUN 180
  Predicted   08 JUN-10 JUN  190/200/210
  90 Day Mean        07 JUN 189

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 JUN  013/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JUN  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JUN-10 JUN  040/045-060/075-025/040

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 JUN to 10 JUN

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	50%	30%	40%
Minor storm	25%	40%	20%
Major-severe storm	20%	25%	15%

B. High Latitudes
Active	30%	10%	30%
Minor storm	40%	60%	30%
Major-severe storm	25%	30%	20%

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