Viewing archive of Friday, 23 June 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 23 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 9046 (N21W34) PRODUCED AN M2/2B FLARE AT 23/0407Z ASSOCIATED WITH A 240 SFU TENFLARE, AND TYPE II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS. REGION 9042 (N23W72) PRODUCED AN M3/1F FLARE AT 23/1431Z ASSOCIATED WITH A 250 SFU TENFLARE, TYPE II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS, AND A PARTIAL-HALO CME. BOTH REGIONS SHOWED GRADUAL DECAY, BUT RETAINED MIXED-POLARITY MAGNETIC STRUCTURES. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE AND SIMPLY STRUCTURED, INCLUDING NEWLY NUMBERED REGIONS 9058 (S14W15) AND 9059 (N14E30).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 9042 AND 9046 MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. A SUDDEN IMPULSE (SI) OCCURRED AT 23/1305Z WITH A MAGNITUDE OF 29 NANOTESLA (AS MEASURED BY THE BOULDER USGS MAGNETOMETER). ACTIVITY INCREASED TO UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOLLOWING THE SI. A PROTON ENHANCEMENT AT GREATER THAN 10 MEV BEGAN AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT AROUND 23/1600Z. THE ENHANCEMENT FOLLOWED THE M3/1F FROM REGION 9042.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BACKGROUND LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 24 JUN to 26 JUN
Class M40%40%35%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 JUN 175
  Predicted   24 JUN-26 JUN  175/170/165
  90 Day Mean        23 JUN 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JUN  011/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JUN  018/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JUN-26 JUN  020/025-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 JUN to 26 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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