Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 August 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 13 AUG 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED, THE LARGEST A C4/SF AT 1348Z FROM REGION 9125 (N25E29). THIS GROUP IS THE MOST INTERESTING OF THE THIRTEEN SPOTTED REGIONS VISIBLE, SHOWING SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AS WELL AS AN EXPANSE OF BRIGHT PLAGE. PROMINENCE ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED AT THE NW LIMB MUCH OF THE INTERVAL. NEW REGIONS 9130 (S23W13) AND 9131 (N13W71) WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS EARLY, THEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AFTER 0600Z. THE MAJOR STORM OF THE PAST FEW DAYS SUBSIDED AS THE SOLAR WIND CALMED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO MILDLY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS MAY STILL SEE SHORT-LIVED SUBSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 14 AUG to 16 AUG
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 AUG 186
  Predicted   14 AUG-16 AUG  190/190/185
  90 Day Mean        13 AUG 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 AUG  055/109
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 AUG  012/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 AUG-16 AUG  010/015-010/015-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 AUG to 16 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%40%
Minor storm15%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%50%
Minor storm20%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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