Viewing archive of Friday, 11 May 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low during the last 24 hours. Three
C-class flares occurred including a C1 at 0717 UTC, a C1/Sf from
newly assigned 9455 (S18E17) at 1006 UTC, and a C3 apparently from
9455 at 2022 UTC. New Region 9455 grew quickly on the disk to a
D-type sunspot group and appears to have a weak delta configuration.
Region 9454 (S18E17) continues to be the largest group on the disk
at 430 millionths. The group was not observed to produce any flares,
but did exhibit frequent plage fluctuations throughout the day. It
appears to have a simple beta magnetic configuration. An 18 degree
filament near S11E14 disappeared sometime between 0507 UTC and 1314
UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
from either of Region 9454 or Region 9455.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes attained high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 137 Predicted 12 May-14 May 140/145/150 90 Day Mean 11 May 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 023/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 007/008-007/009-007/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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