Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was moderate with 3 M-class flares and
3 C-class flares. A M1.2/SF occurred in Region 9632 (S21W89) at
01/2340 UTC and a M1.0/SF in Region 9641 (S14E07) at 02/1123 UTC. A
M1.4 occurred with no optical correlation. Two new regions were
numbered today, Region 9647 (S16E31) and Region 9648 (S04E78).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate to high levels. Region 9632(S21W89) has major flare
potential for the first day of the period. Region 9636 (N14W41)
remains a beta-Gamma configuration and has M-class flare potential.
Old Region 9608 is due to return on the first day of the period as
Region 9632 rotates beyond the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity reached minor storm level. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux peaked at 2360 PFU 02/0810 UTC. Flux levels
declined over the remainder of the period, but remained at event
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible. Analyst of the CME that occurred at 01/0530 UTC indicates
it was likely a backside event and will have limited impact. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early in the
period.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 201 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 205/195/190 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 025/050 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 025/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 015/020-015/040-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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