Viewing archive of Monday, 1 April 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Apr 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few low-level C-class
flares occurred. Region 9885 (N11E01) retains moderate sunspot area
but has simplified somewhat in magnetic complexity. Region 9887
(N01E24) continues to grow and develop. Region 9886 (N11E16) has
also grown.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class flares are possible in Regions 9885, 9886, and
9887.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The field
remained under the influence of a high-speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to active levels for the next 24 hours
becoming quiet to unsettled by the end of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
| Class M | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 207 Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 210/210/205 90 Day Mean 01 Apr 203
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 015/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 015/020-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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