Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9937 (S09W38) produced an M1/Sf flare at 11/1132 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep of 415 km/s and minor discrete radio bursts. Increased magnetic complexity is apparent in this region with the hint of a delta forming in the dominant spot, seen in the trailing portion of spot cluster. Region 9934 (S17W59) was fairly active today, producing multiple C-class flares. The largest was a C3/Sf flare occurring at 11/1738 UTC. This region remains the most complex region on the disk. New Region 9950 (S06E44) produced a C2/Sf flare at 11/1650 UTC. Region 9949 (S16W06) is also a newly numbered region.

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9934 and 9937 are both complex enough to produced M-class flare activity.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels. Data from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) showed an increase in the solar wind speed from roughly 350 to 450 km/s beginning at approximately 11/0915 UTC. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained strongly negative for several hours thereafter. A sudden impulse of 41 nT was observed at the Boulder Magnetometer at 11/1028 UTC. Major storm conditions were observed at high latitudes from 11/1100 through 11/1800 UTC. Uncertain as to the source(s) of the activity, although multiple CME's were seen in SOHO/LASCO imagery on the eighth and ninth. Source regions for CME's believed to have been from both the east and west limbs.

The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated minor storm conditions may occur on day three of the forecast due to the M1/Sf flare that occurred at 11/1132 UTC.

  Observed       11 May 188
  Predicted   12 May-14 May  190/195/190
  90 Day Mean        11 May 187

  Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  019/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 May  035/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  012/015-008/010-012/012