Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 June 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jun 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Only a few small
C-class flares occurred, which were mostly associated with Region
9987 (S15W43). This region has continued to show slow growth in
magnetic complexity and penumbral coverage. An eruptive prominence
was observed on the west limb at 11/1125 UTC. SOHO/LASCO depicted a
weak CME that does not appear to be earth directed. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 9987 remains capable of producing isolated low
level M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jun 148 Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 145/150/160 90 Day Mean 11 Jun 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 010/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 005/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 005/010-005/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun to 14 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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