Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 August 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 69 (S07W71) produced an M5/2b event at 22/0157 UTC. This event had an associated 260 sfu Tenflare and a Type II and Type IV radio sweep. This region has decreased slightly in size and sunspot count and continues to maintain the beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. New Region 87 (S07E74), numbered today, produced an M1/1n event at 22/1802 UTC. Another region was numbered today as Region 86 (S21E29).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 69 remains capable of producing a major event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active conditions. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 22/0440 UTC and is still in progress. The tentative maximum for this event has been 36 pfu at 22/0940 UTC. Also, a greater than 100 MeV event began at 22/0340 UTC, reaching a maximum of 1 pfu at 22/0510 UTC and ended at 22/0615 UTC. This activity is associated with the M5 event observed today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled conditions. Unsettled to active conditions are possible for 24 August in response to the M5 event observed today. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue into 23 August.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton99%50%40%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Aug 220
  Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug  215/215/210
  90 Day Mean        22 Aug 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  019/041
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Aug  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  015/015-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%40%35%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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