Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity fell to low levels for the period. The
largest event was a long duration C3.2 x-ray enhancement, observed
during 13/0341-0552 UTC without a correlated optical report. Some
episodes of lesser C-class flare activity were produced by Region
191 (S18E12) later in the period. This region has continued to
exhibit a trend of increasing size and spot count and moderate
magnetic complexity. Region 180 (S11W94) produced some bright loops
visible in H-alpha early in the period, but was mostly quiescent as
it transited the west limb today. New Regions 194 (S16E43) and 195
(S15E78) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the next three days. Region 191 appears to be a
likely source of M-class activity for the forecast period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled, with some isolated
quiet and active periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly unsettled through day one of the forecast
period. A trend toward more active conditions, with isolated minor
storm conditions possible, is expected by day three of the forecast
period due to the anticipated onset of coronal hole high speed
stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 182 Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 175/175/175 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 010/012-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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