Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 November 2002

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours. Today's activity consisted of occasional C-class flares from Region 198 (S17W84) and Region 207 (S19E59). The largest event of the day was a C8/Sf at 1136 UTC from Region 198. Region 198 has nearly rotated off the west limb. Region 207 exhibited frequent plage brightenings throughout the period and is now the dominant region on the solar disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event during the next three days.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours. Solar wind data show the continuation of enhanced solar wind speed, and a weak but steadily southward orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods during the next 24 hours as the current disturbance subsides. Predominantly unsettled conditions are expected on the second and third days.

III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec

Class M	30%	30%	30%
Class X	05%	05%	05%
Proton	05%	05%	05%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       28 Nov 140
  Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec  140/140/145
  90 Day Mean        28 Nov 171

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  013/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Nov  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  012/015-012/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	45%	40%	25%
Minor storm	15%	15%	10%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	40%	40%	25%
Minor storm	20%	15%	15%
Major-severe storm	10%	05%	05%

All times in UTC

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