Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 339 (N18W45) has
rapidly increased in complexity over the last 24 hours, and was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 337 (S14E55) and 339 (N18W45) harbor the greatest potential
for flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 24 hours,
increasing to unsettled to active levels on days 2 and 3 due to a
favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Apr 119 Predicted 21 Apr-23 Apr 125/125/130 90 Day Mean 20 Apr 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr 010/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Apr 017/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 012/012-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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