Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 July 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions remain quiet and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. Solar
wind speeds began to increase today after 26/1830 UTC from around
400 km/s to above 560 km/s, with a sustained southward Bz. The
probable source of this high speed stream is a E-W oriented coronal
hole which is now rotating into a geoeffective location.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with periods of minor
storm conditions. Effects of the high speed solar wind should
persist through the period.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jul 103 Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 105/110/120 90 Day Mean 26 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 020/030-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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