Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels. Only three
regions are on the solar disk. None have significant potential for
solar activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
coronal hole is progressing beyond geoeffective range. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a slight chance
for minor storm until the end of the 15th, falling off to quiet to
unsettled levels for the 16th and 17th.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 092 Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 020/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 015/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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