Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 August 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 06 Aug.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Aug 088
  Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug  085/090/090
  90 Day Mean        03 Aug 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Aug  003/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  005/006-004/006-004/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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