Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 September 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Sep 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 672 (N05W03) is a
magnetic complex beta-delta region but has neither shown any real
growth nor decay since 14 Sep. Region 673 (S13E72) was newly
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low. There is a chance for isolated M-level flare activity from
Region 672 (N05W03).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. A greater
than 10 MeV proton flux event which began on 13 Sep at 2205Z fell
below threshold on 15 Sep at 1015Z. The event reached a maximum of
237 PFU on 14 Sep at 0005Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to active levels from 16 Sep through
18 Sep due to the arrival of a weak coronal mass ejection that
occurred on 14 Sep at 0930Z. During the arrival of a shock driven
by this event, there is a small chance that the greater than 10 MeV
proton levels will be enhanced.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 110 Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 017/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 015/025-015/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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