Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 713 (S10E46) produced a
single C1 flare at 19/0414Z. A faint CME off the southeast limb was
likely associated with this flare, but is not expected to be
geoeffective. Region 712 (S11E24), the only other spot group on the
visible disk, was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 713.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed was in gradual
decline and finished the period near 400 km/s. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
possible on 22 December.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 094 Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 095/100/100 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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