Viewing archive of Monday, 31 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 729 (S10E18), a
new region numbered today, produced a C1.3 at 31/1052 UTC. Other
regions did not exhbit significant development. An apparent
backsided CME was observed on LASCO imagery beginning at 31/0918
UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 727 (S09W53) and 729 may produce C-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active from the continuing
influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ended the period at a high
level.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 1 February from the residual
effects of elevated solar wind speed. Activity should subside to
quiet to unsettled levels on 2-3 February.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 086 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 010/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 012/020-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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