Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 May 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 15 0020 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 758 (S10E90) has
now rotated off the visible limb, and Region 759 (N11W07) has
continued to produce several C-class events. The greater than 10
MeV solar particle flux at the time of this report had reached a
maximum of 338 PFU on 14 May at 1945Z, and remains high.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 759 continues to have a high potential for M-class
activity, and slight chance for further proton-producing flare
activity. The current energetic proton flux is expected to remain
elevated through 16 May.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels from 15 through 16
May, with a slight chance of an isolated period of major storm
levels. The flare from Region 759 on 13 May at 1657Z, produced a
significant, Earth-directed, coronal mass ejection. The shock is
expected to arrive late on the 15th, and remain geoeffective through
the 16th.
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 100 Predicted 15 May-17 May 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 14 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 021/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 010/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 045/060-040/045-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 45% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 25% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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