Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 June 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 12 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 775 (N10W32)
produced two C-class flares, a C3.5/Sf at 0236 UTC and a C3.0/Sf at
1609 UTC. Both flares were long duration events. No significant
development was observed from the regions on the active disk, and no
new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a slight chance of M-class activity from Region 775.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A minor
transient was observed at ACE at 0650 UTC, followed by an increase
in solar wind speed from 300 km/s to around 500 km/s. Subsequent
active conditions were observed. At 1600 UTC Bz began a period of
consistently southward orientation of -15 nT, which continued to the
time of this report and led to minor storming late in the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Continued southward
Bz observed late on 12 June will likely result in minor and isolated
major storming early on 13 June. Activity should subside late on 13
June. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 14 and 15 June,
with isolated active conditions possible.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 103 Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 12 Jun 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 010/025-008/020-006/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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