Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 June 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 15 2200 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 776 (S05W64) produced a
C2.2 flare at 1843 UTC. Region 775 (N09W74) continues to show fair
flare potential but will rotate around the west limb on 16 June.
Region 776 will rotate off on 17 June. Two new regions were
numbered today. Newly numbered Region 778 (N07W38) developed into a
Cro beta group. Newly numbered Region 779 (S17E08) emerged and
developed rapidly into a Dai beta spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
The interplanetary magnetic field component Bz was sustained
southward between -5 and -10 nT from 15/0500 to 15/1200 UTC. This
resulted in minor storm levels between 15/0600 and 15/0900 UTC.
Conditions have been at unsettled to active levels since 0900 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for isolated
active periods on 16 June as a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream rotates into a geoeffective position. Isolated minor to
major storming is possible on 17 June due to the effects of CME
activity associated with the C4 and C7 flares on 14 June.
Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to active on 18
June
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 095 Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 015/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 012/020-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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