Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 April 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 13 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Only a few B-class flares
occurred. All sunspot regions were relatively small and simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. A small C-class flare is possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Solar wind
observations suggest the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream
as the likely cause of the activity.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with the possibility of
isolated storm conditions as the high-speed stream induced activity
continues.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 080 Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 020/030-015/040-010/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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