Viewing archive of Monday, 21 August 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Aug 21 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. Newly numbered Region 905
(S08E72) produced six C-class flares over the past 24 hours, the
largest of which was a C3 flare at 21/0226Z. Region 904 (S12W88)
produced two C-class flares, including a C4/Sf at 20/2102Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 905.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with a single active
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on 22
August. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 23 - 24 August.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 088 Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 090/085/085 90 Day Mean 21 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 014/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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