Viewing archive of Friday, 1 September 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 01 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region 906 (S09W65) produced the largest flare of the period, a C1 x-ray event that occurred at 01/0506Z. Analysis in white light indicates that the sunspot growth rate has slowed and the region is classified as a Dso beta group. Region 905 (S08W81) has shown steady decay over the period and has been classified an Hax alpha sunspot group. Updated LASCO imagery depicts a CME resulting from yesterday's B7 x-ray flare that does not appear to be Earth-directed. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very to low levels. Region 906 has the potential to produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. A chance for active to isolated minor storm conditions are possible on 03 September due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Sep 077
  Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        01 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Sep  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  008/010-012/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%20%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%35%25%
Minor storm05%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%10%05%

All times in UTC

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