Viewing archive of Friday, 1 June 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jun 01 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. New
Region 960 (S06E73) was responsible for two M-class flares during
the past 24 hours. An M1 x-ray flare occurred at 01/0651Z and an
M2/Sf event occurred at 01/1459Z. A Tenflare of 100 sfu was
associated with the M2 event. This region remains too close to the
east solar limb to ascertain a complete magnetic analysis. Region
958 (S13E22) developed several sunspots during the period and is now
classified a Bxo beta magnetic sunspot group. Region 959 (S12E49)
contains two small umbra and was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 960 is likely to produce further M-class
flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 02 June. Active
conditions are expected on 03 and 04 June due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 079 Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 003/005-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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