Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 May 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 May 04 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 993 (S29E27)
emerged on the disk during the period as a small, simple Bxo Beta
group. The region has a new cycle magnetic configuration and
appears to be growing slowly.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
velocities, as measured at the ACE satellite, remain elevated at
about 550 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for
isolated active periods all three days of the forecast period (05-07
May) due to the high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 068 Predicted 05 May-07 May 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 04 May 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 008/008-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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