Viewing archive of Friday, 14 November 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Nov 14 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1008 (N33W53) continues to be quiet and to decline.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from Region 1008.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels in the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet with isolated unsettled conditions possible during the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Nov 068
  Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov  070/068/068
  90 Day Mean        14 Nov 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active01%01%01%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active01%01%01%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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