Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 February 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Feb 15 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
in the past 24 hours. The visible solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. ACE solar
wind speeds averaged around 580 km/s as Earth continues under the
influence of the recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream
pattern. The interplanetary Bz ranged between +4/-4 nT. The
greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 16 February.
Predominately quiet conditions are expected for 17-18 February.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 070 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 009/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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