Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1117 (N20W72)
produced several B-class flares. The largest of these was a B6 flare
at 30/1333Z. Region 1117 continued to show decreases in areal
coverage and sunspot count. New Region 1120 (N39E69) was classified
as a Bxo-beta spot group and produced a B2/Sf flare at 30/0728Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels, with a slight chance for an M-class event
from Region 1117.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with a single period
of unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet, with unsettled periods possible
at high latitudes late on day one (31 October). Activity is expected
to increase to quiet to active levels, with a slight chance for a
minor storm period at high latitudes, on day two (01 November) due
to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet to unsettled
levels, with active periods at high latitudes, are expected on day
three (02 October).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 085 Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 084/082/080 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 005/008-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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