Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 November 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Nov 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1339 (N18W62) and 1344
(S19W59) each produced occasional low-level C-class flares. Region
1339 continued to gradually decay and was classified as a Dac-type
with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1344 continued to
show gradual intermediate spot development. It was classified as a
Dai-type with a beta magnetic configuration. No significant changes
were noted in the remaining regions. New Region 1346 (S17E64), an
Hsx-type, was numbered early in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (13 - 15 November). There will be a chance for an
isolated M-class flare until Regions 1339 and 1344 depart the west
limb on 14 November.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A weak interplanetary shock was
detected at the ACE spacecraft at 12/0518Z, followed by a sudden
geomagnetic impulse at Earth at 12/0611Z (8 nT, Boulder USGS
magnetometer). Modest increases in wind speed and IMF Bt were
observed following the shock arrival, which likely indicated the
arrival of the halo-CME observed on 09 November.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (13 -
14 November), followed by a decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (15
November).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 169 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 02% | 02% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 14% | 14% | 13% |
| Minor storm | 12% | 12% | 08% |
| Major-severe storm | 08% | 08% | 02% |
All times in UTC
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