Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 December 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Dec 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1363 (S21E04) continues to grow in sunspot number and
magnetic complexity (beta-gamma-delta). The largest event of the
period was a C4 x-ray event at 04/1615Z from Region 1362 (N08W18).
New region 1367 (S18E36) emerged on the disk early in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class x-ray events for the next three
days (05-07 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. An isolated period at minor storm levels was observed
at high latitudes, due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(05-07 December).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 164 Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 165/170/165 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 006/005-004/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 02% | 02% | 02% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 00% | 00% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| Minor storm | 09% | 09% | 09% |
| Major-severe storm | 03% | 03% | 03% |
All times in UTC
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