Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 February 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N16W90) produced a
slow rise and fall, limb event, C7 x-ray flare at 07/2216Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (09-11 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled over the period due to
elevated ambient solar wind speeds and periods of southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods for days 1-2 (09-10 February) due to coronal hole effects.
Conditions should return to mostly quiet levels on day 3 (11
February).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 097 Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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