Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1515 (S17E04) produced an impulsive M5/2b flare at 02/1052Z associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated shock speed 1063 km/s), a 380 sfu Tenflare, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) with most of the mass directed southward, out of the ecliptic plane. It also produced an impulsive M3/2b flare at 02/2007Z associated with a 190 sfu Tenflare. This region remained large and magnetically complex (beta-gamma-delta). Region 1513 (N16W09) produced an impulsive M1/1n flare at 02/0035Z as well as frequent B- and C-class flares. Gradual spot growth was noted in its intermediate and trailer portions and it retained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered.

Solar activity is expected to be moderate during the period (03 - 05 July) with M-class flares expected from Regions 1513 and 1515.

Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels with minor to major storm levels detected at high latitudes. This activity was associated with a persistent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). ACE data indicated solar wind speeds in the 580 - 722 km/s range with no discernible trend. IMF Bz was variable and ranged from +6 nT to -5 nT. Todays observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux (166 sfu) was flare-enhanced due to the M3/2b at 02/2007Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (03 July) as CH HSS effects persist. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 - 3 (04 - 05 July) as CH HSS effects gradually subside. The CME associated with todays M5/2b flare is not expected to disturb the field during the forecast period.

  Observed       02 Jul 166
  Predicted   03 Jul-05 Jul  140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        02 Jul 120

  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul  020/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jul  020/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  013/015-007/008-007/008