Viewing archive of Friday, 11 January 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Jan 11 1210 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

Geomagnetism

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Jan 2013	174	001
12 Jan 2013	179	001
13 Jan 2013	184	001

Bulletin

The main driver of solar activity is likely to be NOAA AR 1654, which has produced several C flares in the past 24 hours, and a M1.2 flare, today, at 0911 UT (peak time). A metric type II burst was observed, and a CME was probably associated to it. At the time this message is prepared, coronagraphic observations do not allow to see if a CME has indeed occurred. Active conditions (M flare likely) are expected for the next 48 hours from this region, with a risk of an X class flare. Geomagnetic conditions might evolve quickly from quiet to active levels in the coming days if CMEs related to NOAA AR 1654 flares occur; which justifies issuing a warning condition.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 109, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Jan 2013

Wolf number Catania	185
10cm solar flux	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	101 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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