Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 February 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Feb 16 1217 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Feb 2013	103	001
17 Feb 2013	105	008
18 Feb 2013	107	011

Bulletin

Flaring activity was low during the past 24 hours, and it is expected that the next 48 hours should be mostly quiet, with however a risk for C class flares from NOAA ARs 1670 and 1673. A CME was observed on Feb. 15, around 1736 UT on LASCO C2. It is a partial halo event, originating from a small eruptive event taking place to the south-east of NOAA AR 1671 around 1615UT. Due to the position of the source region, this event might arrive at Earth, although STEREO observations are scarce at the time this bulletin is prepared. Preliminary estimates give an arrival around Feb. 20, but this will be refined as new information is available. Unsettled to active conditions might be expected from this event. In the meanwhile, geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for the next 48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 022, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Feb 2013

Wolf number Catania	057
10cm solar flux	100
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	027 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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