Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 May 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 May 02 1252 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
02 May 2013	155	010
03 May 2013	155	005
04 May 2013	152	001

Bulletin

An M1.1 class flare occurred on May 2nd, at 0510 UT (peak time), in NOAA AR 1731, accompanied by a type II burst and a CME. This region still has the potential for an extra M class flare in the next 24 to 48 hours, and we therefore expect active conditions for this time period. NOAA AR 1730 is slightly less complex but an isolated M flare is not excluded. C flares are expected from NOAA ARs 1732 and 1734. The bulk of the CME from this morning is heading northward, but its southern flank might pass by the Earth. We expect an arrival in the morning of May 6th, triggering active to possibly minor storm conditions. For the next 48 hours, geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. Conditions were mostly active during the past 24 hours, with several periods at K=4 at planetary levels. This corresponds, as observed by ACE, to a period of negative Bz component down to -10 nT, and to a slight increase in speed, which might be linked to a small coronal hole to the west of NOAA AR 1731.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 069, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 01 May 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	028
Estimated Ap	025
Estimated international sunspot number	096 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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