Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 July 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Jul 02 1200 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Jul 2013	115	007
03 Jul 2013	119	007
04 Jul 2013	121	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been low in the past 24 hours with a few C flares observed. The strongest event was a C1.8 flare, taking place in NOAA AR 1785, on July 1st, 1516UT (peak time). We expect C flares in the 48 hours to occur essentially in AR 1785, raising the flaring forecast level to eruptive. A wide filament eruption occurred on the east limb, around 1930 UT, on July 1st. It was accompanied by a CME spotted by LASCO and COR coronagraphs, but with long data gaps. With the current available information, it is difficult to assess the true extent of the event and if it poses any risk. Based solely on its location, the risk for geomagnetic effects appears to be low. A second filament eruption took place on July 2nd, around 0000UT, near the central meridian. Due the data gap in coronagraph data, it is not known currently if a halo CME is associated with this event. We expect mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 48 hours. Current conditions in the interplanetary medium as measured by ACE are also very quiet.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 076, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Jul 2013

Wolf number Catania	081
10cm solar flux	108
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	048 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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