Viewing archive of Monday, 12 August 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Aug 12 1221 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Aug 2013	114	008
13 Aug 2013	118	007
14 Aug 2013	120	007

Bulletin

NOAA AR 1817 is expected to be the main player in the coming 48 hours with risks of M class flares. It evolved rather quickly in the past 24 hours, and it is now a complex and elongated sunspot group. The central part shows a wide penumbra making the link between two opposite polarity sunspots. Strong C flares occurred in this region on August 11 (C6.7 at 2131UT and C8.4 at 2158 UT peak time). A M1.5 flare occurred in this region on August 12, 1041 UT peak time. Indirect signatures of CMEs were observed, on disk, with EUV imagers, but data gaps in coronagraphic data during these flares, do not allow to confirm this. We expect active flaring conditions in the next 48 hours. C flares are possible for NOAA AR 1818. We foresee mostly quiet conditions in terms of geomagnetic activity for the next 48 hours. Current interplanetary conditions, as measured by ACE are quiet.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 057, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Aug 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	110
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	054 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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