Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 September 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Sep 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (09 Sep) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two
and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
422 km/s at 08/1634Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0222Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/0246Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1040 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 096 Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 08 Sep 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 008/010-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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