Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 October 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Oct 01 1251 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
01 Oct 2013	106	007
02 Oct 2013	106	019
03 Oct 2013	106	026

Bulletin

The flaring probability is low. Only the newly emerging active regions on East limb and and NOAA AR 1855 have a small chance for a C-class flare. NOAA AR 1855 (now at central meridian, northern hemisphere) is a new flux emerging region and has developed a transequatorial connection with an old decaying active region in the Northern hemisphere. The arrival of the CME of midnight Sept 29/30 is still expected for midnight Oct 2/3 with an uncertainty range of +/- 6 hours. The CME is expected to trigger a minor geomagnetic storm (Kp=5) early Oct 3. Meanwhile the 10 MeV proton levels are still above the event threshold as a consequence of the same event.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 032, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Sep 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	105
AK Chambon La Forêt	003
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	/// - Based on /// stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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