Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 October 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Oct 09 1303 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Oct 2013	115	027
10 Oct 2013	117	011
11 Oct 2013	120	003

Bulletin

An M2.8 flare peaking at 01:48 UT today was detected in the Catania sunspot group 5 (NOAA AR 1865) near the south-east solar limb. The associated CME was narrow and is not expected to arrive at the Earth. This sunspot group is expected to provide more flaring on the C-level and possibly even up to the M-level. An interplanetary shock wave was detected by ACE and SOHO/CELIAS around 20:00 UT on October 8. The solar wind speed in the post- shock solar wind flow reached 700 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude reached 35 nT, with brief intervals of strong (up to -20 nT) southward fields. Dourbes, NOAA, and IZMIRAN reported minor storm conditions (K = 5). This interplanetary disturbance is most probably associated with the halo CME observed on the Sun on October 6. Currently the solar wind speed is around 590 km/s. The IMF magnitude is around 10 nT, but the north-south Bz component is close to zero. The decrease of the proton temperature might indicate the imminent arrival of the magnetic could. Due to high solar wind speed and IMF magnitude, disturbed geomagnetic conditions up to the minor storm level (K = 5) are still possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 077, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Oct 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	112
AK Chambon La Forêt	043
AK Wingst	015
Estimated Ap	017
Estimated international sunspot number	066 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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