Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 October 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Oct 12 1128 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Oct 2013	132	010
13 Oct 2013	134	007
14 Oct 2013	134	016

Bulletin

Active conditions are expected to prevail for the next 48 hours, with risks of M class events from NOAA ARs 1861 and 1865. Both regions are magnetically complex enough for such class of flares, but somehow do not show anymore significant evolutions. Many C flares occurred in the past 24 hours related to these two regions. A noticeable one, a C6.2 event, occurred in AR 1865 on Oct. 11, 1228 UT peak time. It was associated with a CME, which is heading essentially eastward, compared to the Earth, and is therefore expected not to be geoeffective. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 24-36 hours, and then unsettled to active conditions by the second half of Oct. 14, due a small coronal hole becoming geoeffective. Current interplanetary conditions are quiet.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 077, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Oct 2013

Wolf number Catania	167
10cm solar flux	129
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	092 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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