Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 October 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Oct 22 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Oct 2013	136	005
23 Oct 2013	136	007
24 Oct 2013	136	007

Bulletin

There were one M flare and fourteen C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours. The M1.0 flare was released by NOAA AR 11875 and peaked at 00:22 UT on October 22. AR 11875 has now become a beta-gamma-delta region, and produced all but one of the fourteen flares. More M flares are likely from this region within the next 48 hours, with a slight chance for an X flare. Solar wind speed rose slightly from 290 to 330 km/s within the last 24 hours. In the same period, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field increased from about 3 nT to about 8 nT. These increases are possibly related to the arrival of a weak coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speeds are expected to stay nominal from October 22 till 24. LASCO C2 observed a CME around 1:48 UT on October 22, probably associated with the M1.0 flare. Evaluation of the available imagery from LASCO C2 and STEREO COR2 A and B suggests that this CME is not Earth-directed. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 3) during the past 24 hours. Quiet conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected for October 22 till 24.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 085, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Oct 2013

Wolf number Catania	156
10cm solar flux	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	004
AK Wingst	001
Estimated Ap	001
Estimated international sunspot number	092 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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