Viewing archive of Monday, 28 October 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
28/0203Z from Region 1875 (N07W79). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30
Oct, 31 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 364 km/s at
28/0540Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/0143Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/0355Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 28/2020Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 418 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Oct), quiet levels on
day two (30 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (31 Oct).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 160 Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 28 Oct 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 007/008-005/012-017/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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