Viewing archive of Friday, 1 November 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Nov 01 1221 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
01 Nov 2013	140	009
02 Nov 2013	140	003
03 Nov 2013	140	006

Bulletin

The sun produced one M and seven C flares during the past 24 hours. Catania sunspot region 18 (NOAA AR 11877) was responsible for the M1.9 flare peaking at 13:51 UT on October 31. Most C flares originated from Catania sunspot region 29 (NOAA AR 11884). During the next 48 hours, more C flaring activity is expected with a slight chance for an M flare, especially from Catania sunspot region 29 (NOAA AR 11884), which retains a beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. LASCO/C2 (at 18:12 UT on October 31) and LASCO/C3 observed a mainly south directed CME, which will at most only produce a glancing blow. Due to the low speed (CACTus estimation 254 km/s), no effect on geomagnetic conditions is expected. Solar wind parameters observed by ACE indicated the arrival of a weak transient at 10:00 UTC on October 31, possibly related to the CME of 15:24 UT on October 28. A slight increase in solar wind speed, temperature and density was measured. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) went to 12 nT and is now stable around 5 nT. Current solar wind speed is around 350 km/s. Geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (local K at Dourbes and NOAA Kp between 0 and 3), which is expected to remain so within the next 48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 085, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 31 Oct 2013

Wolf number Catania	138
10cm solar flux	143
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	/// - Based on /// stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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