Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 November 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Nov 03 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Nov 2013	142	009
04 Nov 2013	148	006
05 Nov 2013	152	007

Bulletin

The sun produced one M and six C flares during the past 24 hours. Catania sunspot region 29 (NOAA AR 11884) was responsible for the M1.6 flare peaking at 22:13 UT on November 2 and the M4.9 flare peaking at 5:16 UT on November 3. Two C flares originated from new region NOAA AR 11890. During the next 48 hours, more C flaring activity is expected with a chance for an M flare. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected. The proton flux for >10 MeV protons observed by GOES increased in the second half of November 2, but remained below the event threshold. A change in solar wind parameters was observed from 22:00 UT on November 2; the solar wind speed went to 400 km/s, while temperature also increased. Changes in magnetic field and density were too small for a shock. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was maximally 7 nT and the Bz- component was fluctuating between -5 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled (local K at Dourbes and NOAA Kp between 0 and 3), which is expected to remain so within the next 48 hours. A small coronal hole near +20 degrees latitude has reached the central meridian, which might result in unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions from the end of November 5 (UT time).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 084, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Nov 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	142
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	077 - Based on 08 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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