Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 November 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Nov 06 1246 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Nov 2013	151	009
07 Nov 2013	154	005
08 Nov 2013	157	006

Bulletin

Since the X3.3 flare yesterday, the NOAA AR 1890 (no Catania number yet) produced only C-class flares, the strongest one being the C8.6 flare peaking at 08:51 UT today. Nevertheless, this active region still keeps the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. We expect further strong flaring from this region, primarily on the M-level. Another X-class flare is also probable. Given that the NOAA AR 1890 is approaching the solar central meridian, we maintain the warning condition for a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 350 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 088, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Nov 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	149
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	088 - Based on 09 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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