Viewing archive of Friday, 8 November 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Nov 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
08/0426Z from Region 1890 (S11W02). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10
Nov, 11 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 430 km/s at
08/2024Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/1918Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/2137Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (09 Nov, 10 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on day three (11 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (09 Nov, 10 Nov) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (11 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 146 Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 150/155/150 90 Day Mean 08 Nov 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 006/005-006/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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